Advanced geothermal poised to scale: EGS, AGS, and SHR potential

ITIF (Robin Gaster) reports that advanced geothermal technologies (EGS, AGS, SHR) are transitioning from R&D to commercial deployment, led by Fervo Energy’s commercial-scale EGS rollout and multiple signed offtake agreements.

• Main announcement: ITIF documents that EGS, AGS, and SHR are moving toward commercial scale, with Fervo Energy expanding Cape Station from 400 MW to 500 MW, Phase I delivering 100 MW in 2026 and full 500 MW operational by 2028, and with multiple PPAs (including Southern California Edison: 320 MW, 15-year contracts) already executed; DOE’s FORGE has received $298 million (total committed) with an $80 million extension through 2028 supporting field validation.
• Background and details: The report catalogs federal and private financing and policy actions: Fervo’s $244 million Series D (Devon Energy lead), a Vallourec supply deal worth up to $800 million over 5 years, DOE/ARPA-E programs (SUPERHOT, OG/GTO funding), specific cost metrics (drilling costs per well fell from $9.4M to $4.8M; target <$3M), and pending legislation (e.g., GEO Act, STEAM Act) to streamline permitting and federal land access.