December 21, 2025

Market overview (Global | 2025-12-21)

Capital markets and corporate activity remain constructive for AI/data centre and enabling infrastructure themes. A legal/market snapshot points to sustained deal momentum into 2026, with record private equity participation and continued appetite for megadeals—explicitly including AI- and infrastructure-related transactions—alongside evolving U.S. regulatory and national security review dynamics that can shape cross-border and strategic-sector investment pathways (Global M&A surged in 2025, momentum seen into 2026).

On the permitting and policy front, U.S. environmental regulators are formalising resources and clarifications aimed at data centres/AI facilities, potentially altering timelines and interpretation risk in project development across key markets (EPA launches Clean Air Act data center resource page).

Risks and watchpoints (near-term)

Permitting and regulatory process risk (U.S.)

• The EPA signalled anticipated New Source Review (NSR) rule revisions, with proposal expected in early 2026 and finalisation targeted by fall 2026, aimed at clarifying what constitutes “commencement of construction” under the Clean Air Act—introducing a period of interpretive uncertainty for projects planned/groundbroken across 2026 (EPA launches Clean Air Act data center resource page).
• Local environmental review process control can affect project cadence; county-level actions (e.g., lead agency designations) may concentrate decision-making and extend review timelines depending on scope changes (GCEDC declares lead agency for larger data center review).

Grid and generation buildout execution

• Michigan reporting highlights the energy implications of expanding data centres, referencing a utility’s large-load deal and multi-year generation additions; execution and regulatory oversight will be central to whether power supply scales in-step with demand (Michigan braces for climate impacts, EPA rollbacks, data centers).

Deal structuring / policy uncertainty affecting M&A

• Anticipated shifts in U.S. regulatory, tax, and CFIUS policies could alter valuation, timelines, and structure selection (e.g., conditional value rights, spin-offs), especially for strategic and cross-border assets tied to AI and critical infrastructure (Global M&A surged in 2025, momentum seen into 2026).

Key deals and projects

Michigan: large-load/data centre demand signals

• Michigan-focused coverage cites DTE’s first 1.4 GW data centre deal (counterparty not specified in the story summary) and references a plan to add 12 GW of generation from 2026–2032; the same item notes DTE’s Integrated Resource Plan filing in December 2026 as a key upcoming milestone for stakeholders tracking supply alignment and rate/regulatory outcomes (Michigan braces for climate impacts, EPA rollbacks, data centers).

Genesee County (New York): environmental review governance

• The Genesee County Economic Development Center (GCEDC) declared itself lead agency to conduct environmental review for a larger proposed data centre—a governance step that can influence process sequencing, scope definition, and stakeholder engagement dynamics for the project (GCEDC declares lead agency for larger data center review).

Power and grid / interconnection highlights

• Michigan power supply planning: The combination of (i) a referenced 1.4 GW data centre deal and (ii) a stated 12 GW generation-addition plan (2026–2032) underscores the scale of incremental supply required to support hyperscale-class demand clusters and the importance of synchronising generation, transmission, and regulatory approvals (Michigan braces for climate impacts, EPA rollbacks, data centers).

Policy and regulation

U.S. EPA: data centre-specific Clean Air Act resources + NSR revision timeline

• The EPA launched a “Clean Air Act Resources for Data Centers” webpage consolidating permitting, regulatory, and modeling materials relevant to data centres and AI facilities—useful for sponsors, EPCs, and counsel standardising air-permitting workstreams across states (EPA launches Clean Air Act data center resource page).
• The EPA also announced anticipated NSR rule revisions to clarify commencement of construction, with proposal planned for early 2026 and final rules expected by fall 2026—a key policy calendar item for 2026 project start and equipment procurement decisions (EPA launches Clean Air Act data center resource page).

Broader deal environment: evolving U.S. policy and strategic-sector support

• A 2025 M&A review flags shifting U.S. regulatory, tax, and CFIUS policies, alongside government equity investments in strategic sectors (examples cited: chips and critical minerals) and evolving activism/financing/structure tools (e.g., CVRs, spin-offs)—relevant context for data centre platform consolidation and adjacent power/infrastructure carve-outs (Global M&A surged in 2025, momentum seen into 2026).

What to watch

• EPA NSR rule revision proposal in early 2026 and finalisation targeted by fall 2026—implications for “commence construction” interpretations and permitting critical path (EPA launches Clean Air Act data center resource page).
• Michigan’s ability to translate a 12 GW (2026–2032) generation-addition plan into executed capacity in time to meet large-load growth (Michigan braces for climate impacts, EPA rollbacks, data centers).
• Follow-through and disclosures around DTE’s 1.4 GW data centre deal and how it feeds into planning and oversight (Michigan braces for climate impacts, EPA rollbacks, data centers).
• Local process milestones in Genesee County as the GCEDC proceeds as lead agency for environmental review of the expanded proposal (GCEDC declares lead agency for larger data center review).
• Continued AI- and infrastructure-related M&A momentum into 2026 amid evolving U.S. policy and deal structuring trends (Global M&A surged in 2025, momentum seen into 2026).