US Data Center Briefing · January 21, 2026
January 21, 2026
Moody’s: $3T global data centre capex outlook; power constraints flagged
Google backs CO2 batteries for long-duration clean backup power
India: AM Group MoU for 1 GW AI compute hub (~$25bn) with 2028/2030 milestones
Capital flows: SOFAZ may commit up to $1.5bn to GIP/BlackRock-linked infrastructure funds
Connectivity scale: Verizon closes $20bn Frontier deal adding ~9m fiber passings
Top news (what matters most today)
- Scale of the build-out is getting clearer:Moody’s projects $3 trillion investment in global data centers over the next five years and expects global data centre electricity use to reach ~600 TWh in 2026. It flags power constraints, hyperscaler concentration risk, rising costs, and a potential AI investment bubble.
- New approach to clean backup power for major campuses:Google commissions CO2 batteries for data center backup power with Energy Dome (and made an equity investment). The reference plant in Ottana, Sardinia stores 2,000 tons of CO2 and can deliver 200 MWh (20 MW over 10 hours).
- Very large AI compute project announced in India:AM Group Announces 1 GW AI Compute Hub in India via an MoU with Invest UP (Uttar Pradesh) for a phased 1 GW High Performance Compute Hub in Greater Noida, targeting ~USD 25bn investment; first capacity by 2028, full build by 2030.
Key deals & capital moves
Middle East / Caucasus
- Potential new LP capital into infra funds + joint investments:Azerbaijan signs Memorandum with BlackRock and GIP in Davos. Under the MoI, SOFAZ may commit up to $1.5bn over 3–4 years into GIP-managed infrastructure funds and joint investments, with a stated project set that includes data centres, regional cloud and AI infrastructure, and airports.
North America
- Fiber scale-up (network edge for data centres):Verizon says software caused outage, closes Frontier acquisition. Verizon completed its $20bn acquisition of Frontier, adding ~9m fiber passings to reach ~30m fiber locations.
Corporate/market backdrop (M&A)
- M&A climate and DC build-out as a driver (time-limited):M&A Predictions and Guidance for 2026 Dealmakers and Lawyers highlights changing antitrust/regulatory scrutiny and frames the data center build-out as a major (but not permanent) M&A catalyst.
Major data centre / compute projects and demand signals
South Asia (India)
- Hyperscale AI compute hub announcement:AM Group Announces 1 GW AI Compute Hub in India
- Location: Greater Noida (Uttar Pradesh)
- Scale/timing: 1 GW total; first capacity by 2028, full by 2030
- Energy claim: 24/7 carbon-free energy
- Tech: ~500,000 high-performance chipsets (as stated)
- Government-to-government demand enablers (energy + AI cooperation):India, UAE set $200 billion annual trade target by 2032 includes a long-term 0.5 million metric tonnes/year LNG supply agreement and stated cooperation on AI/supercomputing and UAE investment in data centre capacity.
Global (AI demand and operator implications)
- Compute + financial scale signal from a key AI buyer:OpenAI reports $20B annualised revenue, targets 2027 IPO
- Reported >$20bn annualised revenue (2025)
- Compute capacity rising to 1.9 GW
- Mentions an October 2025 recapitalisation and a definitive agreement with Microsoft (~27% ownership, exclusive IP rights through 2032)
- Design/retrofit pressure from AI densities:AI-driven surge reshapes data center design and operations cites high-density racks up to 130 kW, and notes one-third of US facilities are over a decade old, pushing modular/adaptive designs and more advanced cooling and energy management.
Power, storage and grid/interconnection highlights
Long-duration storage for resiliency / backup
- CO2 “battery” as an alternative to Li-ion at campus scale:Google commissions CO2 batteries for data center backup power
- Energy Dome’s Ottana facility: 200 MWh (20 MW x 10 hours), 2,000 tons CO2
- Energy Dome expectation: ~30% cheaper than lithium-ion (as stated)
- Also notes: Alliant Energy approval to build a CO2 battery serving 18,000 homes in Wisconsin
Policy-linked grid/storage issues (US)
- Storage policy priorities that matter for DC load growth:Vaughn Morrison outlines 2026 priorities for energy storage policy points to 2026 focus areas including onshoring, cybersecurity, fire safety, expected FEOC guidance from US Treasury, and potential PJM queue reform and FERC directives.
India power adequacy narrative (RE-RTC)
- Round-the-clock renewables positioning for fast capacity build:States must pursue RE-RTC to power India’s growth argues RE-plus-storage can be built in 2–3 years vs 6–7 years for coal, citing competitive bids with storage tariffs of ₹2.1–₹2.8/unit and noting >80% BESS cost declines.
- Renewables developer view tied to AI-driven load growth:ReNew CEO sees massive India renewables demand from AI outlines “smart and measured” expansion across storage/manufacturing/green hydrogen and data centres, citing India targets (1,000 GW by 2040, 1,800 GW by 2047), current 150 GW, and ~50 GW added last year.
Networks, hardware and supply chain (capacity constraints and performance)
Memory supply crunch risk (AI build-out bottleneck)
- Shortage and pricing pressure:AI data centers drive historic memory shortage into 2027 describes what analysts call the worst DRAM shortage in history, expecting price increases to persist into 2027; TrendForce forecasts DRAM prices +50% to +55% this quarter vs Q4 2025.
- Downstream knock-on effects:Data centre AI boom sparks DRAM shortage threatening auto production cites UBS noting DRAM price increases of >100%, with risk to global vehicle production starting Q2 as memory makers prioritize data centre customers.
Data centre networking for AI clusters
- 800G Ethernet fabric validation for Gaudi:Cisco integrates Nexus 9000 switches with Intel Gaudi 3
- Certified for Intel Gaudi 3 servers (each server: 8 Gaudi 3 accelerators)
- Uses 800 GbE RoCEv2 back-end networks; Nexus 9364E-SG2 supports up to 64 x 800GbE
- CPU-to-GPU interconnect ecosystem shift:SiFive adopts Nvidia NVLink Fusion for AI data centers to connect RISC-V CPUs to Nvidia GPUs over a high-bandwidth interconnect.
Operations productivity / managed infrastructure
- Network automation and incident reduction:Intel scales network with authoritative source-of-truth automation model reports 13 engineers managed 5,500 devices in 2025 (vs 20 engineers/~3,000 devices in 2019) and reduced major incidents to zero in the chip design DC and one in the enterprise DC over four years.
- Managed IaaS migration with cost claim:Spence Software moves S2Web to 11:11 Systems, halves IT costs reports 50% IT cost reduction and improved performance/support; notes Canadian data sovereignty needs.
- Third-party support model replacing OEM timelines:Park Place expands Day 1 support for retailer’s infrastructure claims OEM resolution times reduced from 10–30 days to 3–5 days, eliminating $2–3m in annual downtime costs and enabling onboarding of 5,000–10,000 new systems annually.
Policy / regulation and public procurement
Europe
- Public-sector ICT procurement mechanism (Slovakia):Slovakia buyer opens dynamic procurement for IT equipment. The Slovak Office for Public Procurement established a Dynamic Purchasing System (DNS) for ICT/computing equipment (estimated €796,489.54 ex VAT). A contract under LOT-0001 was awarded to Invidia Solutions, a.s. with value €3,355.00 (concluded 19/12/2025).
Southeast Asia
- Compliance-driven localized cloud deployment (Malaysia):Alibaba Cloud partners with Instapay to boost Malaysia fintech explicitly references ensuring compliance with Malaysia’s RMiT regulation while using localized cloud infrastructure/services.
Construction and delivery risk
- Labor constraints affecting delivery schedules:Construction firms face labor shortages despite data center boom reports 82% of firms struggle to fill hourly craft roles and 80% struggle on salaried roles; ~60% report postponed/canceled projects, with immigration enforcement and tariffs cited as disruptive.
2-line wrap:
Material risks are concentrating around power availability, delivery capacity (labor), and hardware supply chains as AI demand scales. At the same time, capital formation and new backup-power technologies are broadening the set of investable pathways beyond traditional UPS/genset assumptions.